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農(nóng)業(yè)遭受洪澇高溫輪番摧殘 天氣指數(shù)保險還在路上

2016-07-28 16:05:31 來源：中國農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 作者：sydneylulu 閱讀量：18305 評論

 　　【中國農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)  本站原創(chuàng)】對于農(nóng)民來說，今年真是多災(zāi)多難的一年。自6月入夏，全國多地遭受洪澇災(zāi)害襲擊，再到7月下旬以來，中國南方地區(qū)持續(xù)高溫天氣，部分地區(qū)已連續(xù)10多日高氣溫超過40℃。農(nóng)作特?fù)p失慘重，讓農(nóng)民苦不堪言，政策性農(nóng)業(yè)保險就是種亡羊補(bǔ)牢的減損辦法，也是農(nóng)民降低損失的后一根救命稻草。
　　
　　在農(nóng)業(yè)險當(dāng)中，天氣指數(shù)保險是一個重要分支，也是保險業(yè)新“國十條”提倡大力發(fā)展的險種。“探索天氣指數(shù)保險等新興產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)”是保險業(yè)新“國十條”提出應(yīng)積極發(fā)展的農(nóng)業(yè)保險之一。近年來，不少財產(chǎn)險公司在這方面進(jìn)行了諸多探索。各地也在大力推進(jìn)天氣指數(shù)保險的發(fā)展。例如，浙江象山為梭子蟹養(yǎng)殖戶提供氣象指數(shù)保險，湖北推出水稻高溫天氣指數(shù)保險等。
　　

        盡管天氣指數(shù)保險的實踐已經(jīng)在路上，各地的推廣速度也較快，這一險種的發(fā)展還較好地避免了傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)保險的道德風(fēng)險，但就目前來看，其發(fā)展還面臨一些問題。
　　
　　道德風(fēng)險弱化
　　
　　業(yè)內(nèi)指出，傳統(tǒng)保險的損失補(bǔ)償由特定氣象條件對特定標(biāo)的損失的影響觸發(fā)，而天氣指數(shù)保險則是基于客觀標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的天氣指數(shù)變動觸發(fā)。前者可以更為針對性地彌補(bǔ)被保險人個體由于氣象條件變化帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，后者則是針對被保險人群體的統(tǒng)一補(bǔ)償。由于觸發(fā)條件更加客觀，天氣指數(shù)保險的賠付更加簡易便捷，同時傳統(tǒng)保險的道德風(fēng)險問題會有所弱化。
　　
　　基差風(fēng)險較大
　　
　　道德風(fēng)險弱化的同時，天氣指數(shù)保險同時面臨基差風(fēng)險較大的問題?；铒L(fēng)險，即有的地區(qū)達(dá)到指數(shù)要求卻并未受災(zāi)，有的地區(qū)指數(shù)雖未達(dá)標(biāo)但遭受災(zāi)害，卻無法獲得保險理賠。一方面，造成保險標(biāo)的損失的因素可能是天氣因素以外的其他因素；另一方面，不同農(nóng)戶獲得相同的賠付標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，可能產(chǎn)生損失和賠付不一致的現(xiàn)象。
　　
　　農(nóng)戶接受程度有限增加推廣難度
　　
　　本身天氣指數(shù)保險在我國是新生事物，其開發(fā)原理、使用方式均比傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)險產(chǎn)品更復(fù)雜，農(nóng)戶對其理解接受程度有限，加上天氣指數(shù)保險可能存在的基差風(fēng)險，對產(chǎn)品的推廣使用有一定不利影響。
　　
　　數(shù)據(jù)缺失 難成體系
　　
　　在基差風(fēng)險之外，天氣指數(shù)保險還面臨數(shù)據(jù)缺失以及難成體系的問題。
　　
　　業(yè)內(nèi)人士表示，天氣指數(shù)保險產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計對數(shù)據(jù)和天氣監(jiān)測的要求比較嚴(yán)格，如果缺少足夠的數(shù)據(jù)支持，天氣指數(shù)和當(dāng)?shù)氐膶嶋H損失的相關(guān)關(guān)系計算不準(zhǔn)確，就會帶來較大偏誤。
　　
　　詳解：氣象數(shù)據(jù)是天氣指數(shù)保險的基礎(chǔ)要素。不過，氣象及損失數(shù)據(jù)的收集并不容易。業(yè)內(nèi)表示，指數(shù)保險產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計需要較長周期的歷史數(shù)據(jù)，目前氣象數(shù)據(jù)相對完善，基本保證每個縣都有數(shù)據(jù)積累，氣象部門也在試點縣積極配合安裝設(shè)備，但考慮到大范圍推廣后，氣象設(shè)備的安裝成本成倍提高，導(dǎo)致具體操作中有困難。據(jù)了解，農(nóng)業(yè)天氣指數(shù)保險一般需要30年左右的氣象數(shù)據(jù)作為基礎(chǔ)，以及在該期限內(nèi)峰值災(zāi)害與氣象關(guān)聯(lián)的損失，目前這方面的研究還需要繼續(xù)加強(qiáng)。
　　
　　更進(jìn)一步看，除了數(shù)據(jù)采集，對數(shù)據(jù)的處理難度也較大，綜合性指數(shù)模型難以建立。正因為如此，不少天氣指數(shù)保險只針對某一項指標(biāo)，如降雨量、溫度、風(fēng)力等，但單一指標(biāo)往往難以反映多種災(zāi)害的復(fù)雜情況。從采集數(shù)據(jù)，分析數(shù)據(jù)，到建立起綜合性指數(shù)模型是一項系統(tǒng)工程，如何通過這些數(shù)據(jù)更為準(zhǔn)確地反應(yīng)災(zāi)害對農(nóng)作物的影響，有很大難度。
　　
　　業(yè)內(nèi)心聲：平衡‘道德風(fēng)險’與‘基差風(fēng)險’ 獲取市場更多信任
　　
　　未來天氣指數(shù)保險產(chǎn)品的發(fā)展需要更多地關(guān)注‘道德風(fēng)險’與‘基差風(fēng)險’之間的平衡，尤其在開展推廣初期，要重點關(guān)注基差風(fēng)險的控制。“基差風(fēng)險”的控制需要若干條件，包括要更合理地確定天氣指數(shù)保險的風(fēng)險區(qū)劃，更好地評估氣象條件或災(zāi)害強(qiáng)度與農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系，以及更直觀地將這種相關(guān)性體現(xiàn)在易于理解掌握的天氣指數(shù)中等，以使天氣指數(shù)保險的保障更具針對性、準(zhǔn)確性。相信只要能夠更多地從消費者出發(fā)調(diào)整和優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品，市場就會給予天氣指數(shù)保險更多的信任。
　

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