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中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展報(bào)告（2021-2022）搶先看——履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)

———2021年履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)回顧與2022年預(yù)測(cè)
2022-08-19 10:44:25 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：15524 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)歷了2020年穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)后，2021年銷(xiāo)量再創(chuàng)新高。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)歷了2020年穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)后，2021年銷(xiāo)量再創(chuàng)新高。在諸多傳統(tǒng)市場(chǎng)走低、小眾市場(chǎng)增幅遇挫的大背景下，實(shí)現(xiàn)逆襲，給去年的農(nóng)業(yè)裝備市場(chǎng)留下濃重一筆。該產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)背后隱含著怎樣的必然邏輯，今年市場(chǎng)還會(huì)續(xù)寫(xiě)前兩年的驕人業(yè)績(jī)嗎？
 
市場(chǎng)大幅增長(zhǎng)，月度走勢(shì)跌宕起伏
 
　　履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)，累計(jì)銷(xiāo)售7.57萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)14.18%。其中，自走式全喂入機(jī)型累計(jì)銷(xiāo)售6.4萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)17%；占比96.68%，同比提升1.55個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。半喂入收獲機(jī)下滑20%以上。
 
　　從中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的景氣指數(shù)看，全喂入履帶式收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)月度走勢(shì)呈現(xiàn)前高后底的特點(diǎn)。
 
　　去年履帶式收割機(jī)市場(chǎng)大幅度增長(zhǎng)不僅說(shuō)明環(huán)境利好，也意味著內(nèi)在增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力充沛。其一，市場(chǎng)規(guī)模大，保有量高，推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)更新速度進(jìn)一步加快，客戶(hù)更新?lián)Q代動(dòng)力充沛；其二，購(gòu)機(jī)用戶(hù)投資收益較好，激活潛在市場(chǎng)需求，尤其是大范圍跨區(qū)作業(yè)用戶(hù)群體，市場(chǎng)剛性需求較為強(qiáng)勁；其三，收獲功能拓展，導(dǎo)致履帶機(jī)市場(chǎng)需求擴(kuò)容。主收水稻，更換部件即可兼收小麥、大豆、油菜、雜糧、玉米籽粒等多種作物，隨著一機(jī)多用，應(yīng)用空間的不斷拓展，客觀上壯大了用戶(hù)群體；其四，新興市場(chǎng)拉動(dòng)，去年蘇皖等傳統(tǒng)需求穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)，湖北、河南、江西等新興市場(chǎng)崛起，成為推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)的有生力量；其五，2020年市場(chǎng)斷貨，2021年市場(chǎng)能量得到釋放。
 
　　客戶(hù)需求升級(jí)，大型化發(fā)展趨勢(shì)明顯，產(chǎn)品需求進(jìn)入6kg/s喂入量時(shí)代。
 
　　2021年履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)需求結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整較大，市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入喂入量6千克時(shí)代。市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)顯示，喂入量 ≥ 6kg/s機(jī)型累計(jì)銷(xiāo)售5.45萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比飆升93.26%；占比71.99%，較之2020年大幅度上升29.46個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
 
　　履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)的結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整是個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程，并非去年才有的?；厮葸^(guò)去8年的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)性需求的變化，不難發(fā)現(xiàn)，2014～2021年的八年間，履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)大型化經(jīng)過(guò)了漫長(zhǎng)的日積月累的變化。喂入量<5kg/s占比由2014年的69.94%跌至去年的1.85%，跌了68.09個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；與之相反的5kg/s≤喂入量<6kg/s機(jī)型，有2014年的2.15%猛增至2018年的82.1%，用了5年時(shí)間市場(chǎng)占比提升了79.95個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。之后開(kāi)始逐年下降，到2021年降至12.95%。市場(chǎng)讓位于更大喂入量的6kg/s及以上機(jī)型，該機(jī)型從2018年崛起，到2021年占比高達(dá)85.20%，僅僅四年時(shí)間，增長(zhǎng)了78.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，沖上巔峰。
 
區(qū)域市場(chǎng)南移，區(qū)域集中度下降
 
　　2021年，履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)兩個(gè)特點(diǎn)較為突出，一是主流區(qū)域南移，從銷(xiāo)量前10大區(qū)域市場(chǎng)看，包括蘇、皖、鄂、桂在內(nèi)的南方區(qū)域均出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長(zhǎng)，其它市場(chǎng)均呈現(xiàn)不同程度下滑。二是銷(xiāo)量前10大區(qū)域市場(chǎng)集中度小幅下降。市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)顯示，前10大主流區(qū)域市場(chǎng)累計(jì)銷(xiāo)售6.17萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)7.22%；占比81.44%，較之2020年同期小幅下降5.29個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。而非主流區(qū)域銷(xiāo)售1.4萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比大幅度攀升59.67%，主要是受到秋季雨水較多，旱田區(qū)域?qū)β膸C(jī)產(chǎn)品需求大幅提升導(dǎo)致。
 
集中度高企，品牌銷(xiāo)量差距拉大
 
　　2021年，履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局并未發(fā)生大的改變，在納入補(bǔ)貼系統(tǒng)的57個(gè)品牌中，銷(xiāo)量前6大品牌占據(jù)九成以上的份額。市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)顯示，呈現(xiàn)出的最大特點(diǎn)是，兩大主流品牌持續(xù)發(fā)力，大肆收割市場(chǎng)。市場(chǎng)調(diào)查顯示，前6大品牌去年累計(jì)銷(xiāo)售7.2萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比大幅增長(zhǎng)19.64%；占比95.17%。較之2020年上揚(yáng)4.34個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，市場(chǎng)集中度再攀新高。履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)過(guò)數(shù)年激烈的市場(chǎng)角逐，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局漸趨穩(wěn)定。江蘇沃得、濰柴雷沃基本控制了絕大部分市場(chǎng)，繼續(xù)演繹“雙沃爭(zhēng)霸”大戲。沃得和雷沃兩大品牌累計(jì)銷(xiāo)售5.74萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比大幅度攀升22.91%；占比高達(dá)75.83%，較之2020年上揚(yáng)5.39個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
 
　　冰凍三尺非一日之寒，包括江蘇沃得、濰柴雷沃、久保田、中聯(lián)重機(jī)和星光農(nóng)機(jī)在內(nèi)五大品牌自2015-2021年七年間市場(chǎng)份額占比的變化不能看出，品牌之間的差距是逐年拉開(kāi)的。江蘇沃得2015年占比不過(guò)32.25%，到了2021年占比高達(dá)59.58%，增長(zhǎng)了7.33%；其它四個(gè)品牌呈現(xiàn)不同程度的下降，其中，中聯(lián)重機(jī)降幅較大，達(dá)到了12.37%；濰柴雷沃、久保田、星光農(nóng)機(jī)降幅較小，分別下降了5.74%、5.21%和5.06%。
 
利好利空對(duì)沖，市場(chǎng)或穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)
 
　　今年自走履帶式收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)生態(tài)環(huán)境嚴(yán)峻且復(fù)雜，市場(chǎng)匯聚了太多的不確定因素，為今年市場(chǎng)判斷增加了難度。
 
　　我們預(yù)計(jì)今年的履帶式收獲機(jī)整體需求平穩(wěn)，但有下降拐點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)的跡象，預(yù)計(jì)整體市場(chǎng)銷(xiāo)量約8萬(wàn)臺(tái)左右，市場(chǎng)增幅在5%～10%的概率較大。
 
　　市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局不會(huì)出現(xiàn)大的變動(dòng)，但集中度依然會(huì)有小幅提升。從今年前4個(gè)月的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)看，多數(shù)頭部企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)亮眼，其中，江蘇沃得、濰柴雷沃“二巨頭”依然保持了近50%的增幅，中聯(lián)飆升，增幅達(dá)到三位數(shù)，洋馬大幅度攀升。主流品牌的表現(xiàn)折射今年全喂入履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)依然會(huì)保持穩(wěn)健的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局，頭部企業(yè)占據(jù)90%以上的市場(chǎng)份額，“二沃”稱(chēng)雄的局面不會(huì)變化。
 
　　市場(chǎng)需求結(jié)構(gòu)或出現(xiàn)“兩端凸起、中間塌陷”的新特點(diǎn)。大型化趨勢(shì)不會(huì)改變，今年前4個(gè)月，6千克以上進(jìn)行增勢(shì)強(qiáng)勁，其中，喂入量6千克機(jī)型仍然是市場(chǎng)主力機(jī)型，但7千克機(jī)型出現(xiàn)大幅度攀升。小機(jī)型市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭，由2021年市場(chǎng)占比4.74%上升到今年的7.23%，提升了2.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。大型化的動(dòng)力前文已做說(shuō)明，而小型機(jī)具增長(zhǎng)的主要的動(dòng)因一是大豆玉米套作，小幅寬小喂入量履帶機(jī)收獲大豆會(huì)有一部分市場(chǎng)需求；二是一些新市場(chǎng)的崛起，這些市場(chǎng)主要分布在水稻機(jī)收率偏低且以丘陵山區(qū)為主的區(qū)域，如云貴川閩浙贛以及“兩廣”等以小地塊為主的市場(chǎng)，成為推動(dòng)小機(jī)型發(fā)展的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?br /> 

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