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你關(guān)心的問題來了！小麥玉米價格還會繼續(xù)漲嗎？糧食安全有保障嗎？

2020-08-26 18:50:30 來源：農(nóng)機網(wǎng)原創(chuàng) 作者：林言 閱讀量：60355 評論

導(dǎo)讀：今年以來，受疫情、洪澇等多種因素的影響，加上近期全國提倡“節(jié)約糧食”以及小麥玉米價格持續(xù)上漲，很多人開始擔(dān)心糧食安全問題。那么，糧食市場供應(yīng)充足嗎？消費者有沒有必要囤積糧食？

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 編輯視角】 今年以來，受疫情、洪澇等多種因素的影響，加上近期全國提倡“節(jié)約糧食”以及小麥玉米價格持續(xù)上漲，很多人開始擔(dān)心糧食安全問題。那么，糧食市場供應(yīng)充足嗎？消費者有沒有必要囤積糧食？
 
　　我們知道，今年的夏糧已經(jīng)獲得豐收。今年全國夏糧總產(chǎn)量為1.428億噸，比2019年增加了0.12億噸，其中小麥產(chǎn)量1.317萬噸，比2019年增加了0.075億噸，增長0.6%。那么為什么小麥豐收了價格卻上漲了？
 
　　我們先來看一下近一年來的小麥價格：
 

圖表制作：農(nóng)機網(wǎng)，數(shù)據(jù)來源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部

 
　　可以看到今年價格相比去年有較大上漲。此外，據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部消息，今年7月底，主產(chǎn)區(qū)小麥?zhǔn)召従鶅r普遍上漲至每斤1.12-1.22元，比開秤初期高了大約2到6分錢。比去年同期高了3到8分錢，其中山東小麥?zhǔn)召弮r每斤1.17元之上，比去年同期高了8分錢左右。
 
　　據(jù)國家糧食和物資儲備局8月12日發(fā)布主產(chǎn)區(qū)夏糧收購進度，截至8月5日，主產(chǎn)區(qū)小麥累計收購4285.7萬噸，同比減少了938.3萬噸。受今年疫情影響，部分農(nóng)民屯糧惜售，也有一部分種植戶在等待小麥價格進一步上漲。所以說小麥雖然豐收了，但還有一部分留在農(nóng)民手里并沒有出售，這也是導(dǎo)致小麥價格上漲的主要原因。
 
　　那么，小麥后期還會不會大幅上漲？對此，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部相關(guān)負(fù)責(zé)人表示，首先，我國小麥連續(xù)多年豐產(chǎn)，可以滿足當(dāng)年的消費量，產(chǎn)需呈基本平衡、豐年有余的格局；其次，我國小麥庫存充足；后，小麥價格變化具有階段性特征，主要是近期玉米價格上漲明顯，部分地區(qū)玉米價格高于小麥，一些飼料企業(yè)增加小麥的采購，替代玉米作為飼料，市場看漲的預(yù)期就增強了，部分農(nóng)戶和貿(mào)易商惜售的心理又進一步推高了價格。后期，隨著玉米價格趨穩(wěn)，小麥價格繼續(xù)上漲的可能性不大。
 
　　在這里筆者也提醒廣大農(nóng)民朋友，特別是種糧大戶密切關(guān)注市場行情，警惕一些炒作“糧荒”的輿論，不要盲目跟風(fēng)囤糧，把握好售糧的時機，實現(xiàn)豐產(chǎn)又豐收。
 
　　其實相比小麥，今年玉米的價格漲幅更吸引大家的注意力，今年5月底以來，玉米市場價格繼續(xù)走強，甚至可以用“火爆”這個詞來形容。
 

圖表制作：農(nóng)機網(wǎng)，數(shù)據(jù)來源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部
 
　　目前，東北、華北的玉米平均收購價已分別達到每噸2150元和2400元左右，比年初上漲約30%，短期漲幅較為明顯，同比漲幅也將近25%。農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部對此作出判斷：一是玉米價格屬于恢復(fù)性上漲，大體處于合理區(qū)間。目前，東北地區(qū)玉米價格水平低于2014年每噸2240元的臨儲價，也低于此前的市場價歷史高點，仍屬于恢復(fù)性上漲。二是當(dāng)前玉米市場供應(yīng)總體有保障，后期價格將逐步趨穩(wěn)。前期拍賣的臨儲玉米將陸續(xù)出庫，目前全社會庫存能夠滿足秋糧上市前后市場消費需求。隨著新玉米陸續(xù)上市，加上玉米總體寬松，我國玉米及大麥等替代品進口增加。預(yù)計全年玉米市場供給總量充足，價格有望趨于平穩(wěn)。
 
　　其實，糧食價格適當(dāng)上漲，是有利于增加農(nóng)民種糧受益，從而提高來年種植積極性的。沒有必要糧價一上漲就恐慌，就開始擔(dān)心糧食不夠吃。我國已經(jīng)連續(xù)五年保持糧食產(chǎn)量6.5億噸以上，單2019年我國全年糧食總產(chǎn)量就有6.6億噸，當(dāng)前全國稻谷、小麥庫存水平大體相當(dāng)于城鄉(xiāng)居民一年的消費量，所以糧食是夠吃的。
 
　　那么有人問今年呢？今年的新糧能保障明年嗎？我們知道夏糧已經(jīng)豐收了，但其實全年糧食是否能豐收主要看秋糧，秋糧是全年生產(chǎn)的大頭。今年秋糧豐收也是有望的，一是今年秋糧總面積為12.84億畝，較去年增加了500多萬畝，面積增加產(chǎn)量也肯定會增加；二是今年秋糧目前長勢總體正常，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部相關(guān)負(fù)責(zé)人表示，今年糧食生產(chǎn)穩(wěn)中向好的態(tài)勢沒有改變，如果后期不發(fā)生大的災(zāi)害，全年還將是一個豐收年。
 
　　小結(jié)：今年的小麥、玉米價格后期不會再大幅上漲，農(nóng)民應(yīng)該抓住時機適時售出。同時我國糧食安全是有保障的，居民也沒有必要大面積屯糧。糧食雖夠，但也不能浪費，關(guān)于“節(jié)約糧食”問題可回顧筆者上期文章：對餐飲浪費行為說不|全民一起節(jié)約糧食，你加入了嗎？

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