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2019年3月中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)為57.2%

2019-04-10 09:08:49 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：16073 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：3月份AMI指數(shù)為57.2%，比上月提升10.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降5.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)

　　【中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 熱點(diǎn)關(guān)注】 3月份AMI指數(shù)為57.2%，比上月提升10.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降5.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
 
　　中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2019年3月份中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為57.2%，環(huán)比提升10.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降5.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)全部呈現(xiàn)上升態(tài)勢(shì)，其中效益指數(shù)增幅高，為28.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從同比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中除效益指數(shù)和人氣指數(shù)略有上升，其余則呈下降趨勢(shì)，其中庫(kù)存指數(shù)降幅高，為10.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。目前，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)全部進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為：3月份，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)環(huán)比全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì)，均挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間，6個(gè)二級(jí)指數(shù)、9個(gè)三級(jí)指數(shù)環(huán)比也全部出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長(zhǎng)。這種變化一方面意味著3月份農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)已進(jìn)入今年上半年的旺季，另一方面主要源于2月份農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣度處于“谷底”。但依然難掩旺季的不足成色。首先，從同比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中，銷售能力、農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼、庫(kù)存、經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)均呈現(xiàn)不同程度的滑坡，尤其是經(jīng)理人信心和庫(kù)存指數(shù)的下滑，說(shuō)明市場(chǎng)仍十分艱難，市場(chǎng)調(diào)查也吻合了這種現(xiàn)象，許多生產(chǎn)企業(yè)調(diào)低產(chǎn)量，流通企業(yè)控制庫(kù)存，都是基于對(duì)今年市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻的判斷。其次，從6個(gè)二級(jí)指數(shù)、9個(gè)三級(jí)指數(shù)的同比變化看，除大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)略有上升外，其余全部呈現(xiàn)下降，表明今年3月份多數(shù)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)不如去年同期。后，3月份AMI雖然進(jìn)入旺季，但景氣度卻創(chuàng)下五年來(lái)的新低。
 
　　縱觀當(dāng)下的農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)，有這樣幾個(gè)突出的特點(diǎn)值得注意：，自去年至今年，糧價(jià)波動(dòng)較大。據(jù)黑龍江市場(chǎng)調(diào)查，今年的水稻價(jià)格在去年下降0.2元/斤的基礎(chǔ)上，今年又下降了0.1元/斤，直接影響農(nóng)民收入；第二，農(nóng)機(jī)投資收益邊際遞減，壓制投資信心；第三，糧食耕種收環(huán)節(jié)機(jī)械化綜合水平已經(jīng)達(dá)到67%以上，尤其耕、播水平基本實(shí)現(xiàn)機(jī)械化，這就決定了市場(chǎng)剛性需求較弱；第四，拖拉機(jī)、播種機(jī)和收獲機(jī)等傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)力主要來(lái)自更新，而消費(fèi)者收入與農(nóng)機(jī)大戶農(nóng)機(jī)投資收益的下降，直接拉長(zhǎng)了更新周期；第五，過去數(shù)年間，農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)在農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼的拉動(dòng)下，市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重“透支”，拖拉機(jī)、播種機(jī)、收獲機(jī)保有量激增，市場(chǎng)早已由增量市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榇媪渴袌?chǎng)；第六，市場(chǎng)正處于“空窗期”，傳統(tǒng)市場(chǎng)飽和，“小眾市場(chǎng)”尚處于導(dǎo)入期，轉(zhuǎn)型下的市場(chǎng)直接促成市場(chǎng)的持續(xù)低迷。
 
　　基于以上分析，加之4月份仍是市場(chǎng)旺季且3月份人氣指數(shù)上升。我們判斷，已經(jīng)開始的4月，市場(chǎng)景氣度仍將在榮枯線上下小幅波動(dòng)，多數(shù)一級(jí)指數(shù)或?qū)⑦M(jìn)入不景氣區(qū)間，二、三級(jí)指數(shù)的景氣度將出現(xiàn)不同程度的滑坡。
 
　　一、一級(jí)指數(shù)運(yùn)行情況
 
　　(一)銷售能力指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，銷售能力指數(shù)為52.4%，比上月提升12.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降9.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   
 

       (二)效益指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，效益指數(shù)為77.6%，比上月提升28.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期提升2.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。效益指數(shù)的環(huán)比、同比雙雙上揚(yáng)，主要源于：，上個(gè)月和去年整個(gè)行業(yè)效益大幅度下滑，形成“洼地”，導(dǎo)致同比增長(zhǎng)；第二，大型農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)，尤其是大型拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)，對(duì)效益貢獻(xiàn)較大。
 
    

       (三)農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)為54.5%，比上月提升8.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降6.6個(gè)百
 
　　分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       (四)庫(kù)存指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，庫(kù)存指數(shù)為52.5%，比上月提升0.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降10.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。庫(kù)存指數(shù)同比大幅度滑坡，反映出經(jīng)銷商對(duì)4月份市場(chǎng)信心不足。
 
    

       (五)人氣指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，人氣指數(shù)為65.0%，比上月提升15.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期提升0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。人氣指數(shù)環(huán)比大幅度增長(zhǎng)，同比小幅攀升，反映了3月份市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入銷售旺季。
 
    

       (六)經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)為59.4%，比上月提升1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降3.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       二、二級(jí)指數(shù)運(yùn)行情況
 
　　(一)拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為57.1%，比上月提升16.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降2.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       (二)耕整地機(jī)械指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，耕整地機(jī)械指數(shù)為53.1%，比上月提升14.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降6.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       (三)種植機(jī)械指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，種植機(jī)械指數(shù)為50.1%，比上月提升16.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降13.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       (四)田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，田間管理機(jī)械指數(shù)為57.4%，比上月提升18.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
    

       (五)收獲機(jī)械指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，收獲機(jī)械指數(shù)為43.9%，比上月提升8.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降11.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
    

      (六)運(yùn)輸機(jī)械指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，運(yùn)輸機(jī)械指數(shù)為64.6%，比上月提升4.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       三、三級(jí)指數(shù)運(yùn)行情況
 
　　(一)大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為64.8%，比上月提升22.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期提升4.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       (二)中型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，中型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為59.4%，比上月提升13.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降2.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       (三)小型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，小型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為45.5%，比上月提升11.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降9.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
  

       (四)旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)為54.3%，比上月提升9.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降6.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       (五)播種機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，播種機(jī)指數(shù)為49.5%，比上月提升17.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降12.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
   

       (六)插秧機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，插秧機(jī)指數(shù)為50.7%，比上月提升15.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降13.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于景氣區(qū)間。插秧機(jī)市場(chǎng)雖然進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間，但據(jù)市場(chǎng)調(diào)查顯示，主流企業(yè)同比均出現(xiàn)大幅度滑坡，這種景氣可以理解為插秧機(jī)市場(chǎng)月度變化，即相對(duì)于2月份景氣度的提升。
 
  

       (七)小麥?zhǔn)斋@機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，小麥?zhǔn)斋@機(jī)指數(shù)為47.5%，比上月提升6.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降9.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
    

       (八)水稻收獲機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，水稻收獲機(jī)指數(shù)為44.9%，比上月提升8.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降14.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
     

       (九)玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)
 
　　2019年3月，玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)為39.0%，比上月提升10.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比上年同期下降12.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
    

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