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2016年糧食形勢(shì)淺析以及價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)

2016-02-25 09:34:58 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 作者：魏亞伯 閱讀量：12163 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：當(dāng)下，全國(guó)春耕工作以及由南向北展開，去年的糧食價(jià)格下跌依然記憶猶新，很多農(nóng)民尤其是玉米農(nóng)戶損失較大，面對(duì)新一年的春耕，今年的田要怎么種呢？

      【中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 本站原創(chuàng)】過(guò)完元宵，傳統(tǒng)的年也就算過(guò)完了，當(dāng)下，全國(guó)春耕工作以及由南向北展開，去年的糧食價(jià)格下跌依然記憶猶新，很多農(nóng)民尤其是玉米農(nóng)戶損失較大，面對(duì)新一年的春耕，今年的田要怎么種呢？別急，筆者將從近的相關(guān)政策出發(fā)，結(jié)合目前市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)，來(lái)簡(jiǎn)單分析今年我國(guó)種植業(yè)的形勢(shì)。

      聚焦供給側(cè)改革

      農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)改革在種植業(yè)上的體現(xiàn)，有以下幾個(gè)方面：

      首先，是玉米種植面積減少。早在去年，農(nóng)業(yè)部就曝出要在5年內(nèi)減少玉米種植面積5000萬(wàn)畝，重點(diǎn)在劃定的鐮刀灣地區(qū)，而2016年計(jì)劃的目標(biāo)是1000萬(wàn)畝；但日前黑龍江提出今年要減少玉米種植面積1000萬(wàn)畝，一方面黑龍江是玉米種植大省，另一方面，黑龍江去年被曝出大面積種植轉(zhuǎn)基因玉米。無(wú)論怎樣，農(nóng)業(yè)部的任務(wù)不可能由黑龍江一個(gè)省份來(lái)完成，那么照此推斷，今年全國(guó)玉米種植面積將減少1000~2000萬(wàn)畝。

      據(jù)粗略統(tǒng)計(jì)，2015年全國(guó)玉米種植面積是55410萬(wàn)畝，這一減相當(dāng)于回到了2014年左右的水平。因此，玉米價(jià)格今年應(yīng)當(dāng)可以觸底反彈。

      其次是土豆主糧化。土豆主糧化已不是新鮮事，但2月23日，農(nóng)業(yè)部正式發(fā)布的《關(guān)于推進(jìn)馬鈴薯產(chǎn)業(yè)開發(fā)的指導(dǎo)意見》，又將這一話題推上熱點(diǎn)。《意見》將馬鈴薯作為主糧產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)化開發(fā)，并提出，到2020年，土豆種植面積增加到1億畝。

      近幾年土豆的種植面積一直維持在8000~9000萬(wàn)畝，照此預(yù)計(jì)，今年的土豆種植面積不會(huì)增加太多，而且我國(guó)的土豆并不缺，土豆主糧化的目標(biāo)在于戰(zhàn)略貯備意義。因此，土豆價(jià)格不會(huì)有大的起伏，但適合主糧加工的土豆品種或許將受熱捧！

      再次是小麥大米種植要維穩(wěn)。小麥和大米是我國(guó)的主要糧食作物，關(guān)乎糧食安全，因此這二者的生產(chǎn)一定要穩(wěn)定。早在去年主糧價(jià)格下跌的時(shí)候，國(guó)家發(fā)改委就發(fā)布了2016年小麥低收購(gòu)價(jià)政策，2016年生產(chǎn)的小麥（三等）低收購(gòu)價(jià)為1.18元/斤，保持2015年水平不變。而今年，據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)專家分析，今年冬小麥苗情基礎(chǔ)差于上年，尤其是江淮地區(qū)晚播麥個(gè)體偏弱、群體不足。據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)部農(nóng)情調(diào)度，11個(gè)小麥主產(chǎn)省冬小麥一類苗比例44.3%，同比下降5.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。為此，農(nóng)業(yè)部要求適當(dāng)回復(fù)北方春小麥的種植。水稻的種植則是在單產(chǎn)上下功夫，種植面積變化不會(huì)太大。

      農(nóng)情調(diào)度顯示，預(yù)計(jì)今年冬小麥播種面積3.4億畝，與上年基本持平。這一點(diǎn)也驗(yàn)證了今年小麥的種植形勢(shì)與去年相似。因此，小麥玉米的價(jià)格會(huì)維持在穩(wěn)定區(qū)間內(nèi)，不會(huì)有大的波動(dòng)。

      厄爾尼諾持續(xù)影響

      據(jù)《歐盟動(dòng)態(tài)》2月17日消息，聯(lián)合國(guó)有關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)表示，厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象引發(fā)嚴(yán)重干旱和洪水，導(dǎo)致非洲南部、亞洲和拉美近一億人面臨糧食和飲水短缺。2016年世界范圍作物收成將繼續(xù)受到影響。聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織和“饑荒早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)”發(fā)表聯(lián)合聲明說(shuō)，厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象將對(duì)2016年非洲南部的作物收成和糧食安全產(chǎn)生災(zāi)難性后果。氣象學(xué)家表示，本次厄爾尼諾事件是35年來(lái)嚴(yán)重的，雖然預(yù)期未來(lái)6個(gè)月強(qiáng)度會(huì)減弱，但其對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家農(nóng)業(yè)等領(lǐng)域的影響會(huì)持續(xù)兩年或更長(zhǎng)。

      據(jù)此預(yù)計(jì)，2016年糧食或減產(chǎn)，糧食市場(chǎng)或現(xiàn)波動(dòng)，糧價(jià)有望走高。

      人民幣貶值阻擋國(guó)外糧食進(jìn)入

      人民幣貶值自去年始，一直沒(méi)有明顯的轉(zhuǎn)折，市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為，今年人民幣貶值仍舊是大概率事件。這樣一來(lái)，往年大量的廉價(jià)糧食涌入中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的現(xiàn)象將有所緩解，進(jìn)口糧連年增長(zhǎng)的數(shù)據(jù)也將不再。

      這里要說(shuō)明的是，近兩年來(lái)進(jìn)口糧占我國(guó)糧食總量的1/7左右。

      綜上所述，今年的糧食總產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)不及去年，糧食連年增長(zhǎng)的神話或被打破；而或迎來(lái)糧食危機(jī)；人民幣貶值導(dǎo)致流入國(guó)內(nèi)的糧食將減少。進(jìn)而，國(guó)內(nèi)的糧食總量或從高點(diǎn)回落，達(dá)到農(nóng)業(yè)“去庫(kù)存”的目標(biāo)，價(jià)格也會(huì)觸底反彈，但漲幅不大。

      回到今年糧食怎么種的話題上，在總體狀況穩(wěn)定、糧食價(jià)格沒(méi)有大幅上漲的情況下，提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的品質(zhì)、擴(kuò)大耕種規(guī)模、提升種植效率依舊是農(nóng)業(yè)增收的主要途徑。綠色農(nóng)業(yè)、規(guī)模農(nóng)業(yè)也將成為未來(lái)發(fā)展的主流！

（本文僅代表作者個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，不夠成任何投資建議）

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