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“國二”末路迎盛宴 “國三”黯然受大考

2016-01-21 08:35:56 來源：中國農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 作者：魏亞伯 閱讀量：25185 評論

      【中國農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 本站原創(chuàng)】環(huán)保部日前發(fā)布《關(guān)于實施國家第三階段非道路移動機(jī)械用柴油機(jī)排氣污染物排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的公告》，公告明確指出，配裝“國二”標(biāo)準(zhǔn)柴油機(jī)的農(nóng)機(jī)整機(jī)產(chǎn)品后銷售日期由之前的4月1日延期至12月1。如此看來，“國二”將在2016年迎來后的盛宴，而“國三”之路怎么走還是個問號。
 

      又一個“措手不及”

      如果說4月1日升級國三讓很多小企業(yè)叫苦不迭的話，那么此次延期將使大公司飆淚。2015年青島農(nóng)機(jī)展上，愛科等大型農(nóng)機(jī)企業(yè)已經(jīng)帶著自己的“國三”產(chǎn)品參展了，而這一類型的公司自然有足夠的能力在4月1日銷售“國三”產(chǎn)品，這一突然間的延期，勢必打亂大公司今年春季的銷售計劃，重回“二”時代讓他們折騰不少。

      “國三”農(nóng)機(jī)價格上漲

      伴隨著制造工藝的升級，“國三”標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的農(nóng)機(jī)價格自然要上浮。發(fā)動機(jī)作為主機(jī)的心臟，一般采購價格占到整機(jī)成本的20%以上。尤其單缸柴油機(jī)達(dá)標(biāo)成本高于中大馬力段柴油機(jī)，這對單缸柴油機(jī)的主要應(yīng)用對象——微耕機(jī)、小馬力段拖拉機(jī)而言，影響更為顯著。

      天津農(nóng)機(jī)手劉占興說：“我前幾天還打聽過，迪爾新出來的國三產(chǎn)品要比之前的貴了三萬塊呢，真貴！”

      農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼定額降低

      根據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)部新發(fā)布的《2015-2017年全國通用類農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械中央財政資金高補(bǔ)貼額一覽表》來看，2016年全國通用類機(jī)具為23個品目232檔次，與2015年的83個品目487個檔次相比減少了60個品目255個檔次。而且，這232個檔次的補(bǔ)貼額度全部降低，降幅高達(dá)10%。隨著中央政策的變動，地方的農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼額度或許也會隨之下降！

      雖然這一政策在2015年還主要針對“國二”產(chǎn)品，但這一趨勢勢必會延續(xù)下去，明年，“國三”終將迎來大考。

      整體面缺乏動力

      再來看我國農(nóng)機(jī)的整體需求量。2015我國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化水平已超過62%，也就是說我國農(nóng)機(jī)市場的需求量已經(jīng)不是饑渴狀態(tài)了，更多的消費者或許會綜合考慮，拿準(zhǔn)主意再下手，而且目前農(nóng)戶手中的很多“國二”產(chǎn)品還用的過去，因此國內(nèi)對農(nóng)機(jī)的需求量不會有大的增長。當(dāng)然不排除部分行業(yè)的上漲，例如大型拖拉機(jī)等，但就整體而言，動力機(jī)械的需求量將維持穩(wěn)定甚至下降。

      而面對國家整體經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力的加大，農(nóng)業(yè)種植結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整尤其是小麥與玉米種植面積的調(diào)整，兩類收獲機(jī)將面臨嚴(yán)峻考驗。

      競爭壓力依然不小

      雖然一批缺乏技術(shù)的小企業(yè)或被淘汰，但“國三”農(nóng)機(jī)的日子依舊不好過。國內(nèi)企業(yè)依舊面臨著如約翰迪爾、愛科等企業(yè)的擠壓，這些國外巨頭的發(fā)動機(jī)技術(shù)國內(nèi)不止一點點，升級“國三”對他們來講基本不算事；而且國內(nèi)發(fā)動機(jī)企業(yè)與整機(jī)制造商質(zhì)檢的聯(lián)系一直以來欠缺，除了幾家比較成熟的農(nóng)機(jī)制造商外，國產(chǎn)“國三”農(nóng)機(jī)的性能能不能保證依然值得商榷。

      由于上述因素的影響，筆者預(yù)計2016年農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)將更不好過。而且這樣的跡象已經(jīng)有所顯現(xiàn)。

      隨著2015年10月份發(fā)動機(jī)“國三”標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的先行到來，去年10月份農(nóng)機(jī)柴油機(jī)的銷量明顯降低。據(jù)《中國內(nèi)燃機(jī)工業(yè)銷售月報》重點企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年10月完成內(nèi)燃機(jī)銷量 436.82萬臺，環(huán)比下降7.05%，同比下降5.97%，而柴油機(jī)市場同比累計降幅維持在14.5%。

      而12月份，這樣的數(shù)據(jù)有會不會出現(xiàn)在整機(jī)產(chǎn)品上？“國三”標(biāo)準(zhǔn)又能維持多久？

上一篇： 2016年糧食形勢淺析以及價格預(yù)測

下一篇：2016年 這一攬子政策助力農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展

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