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2025年全國油菜病蟲害發(fā)生趨勢預(yù)報

2025-01-10 09:12:39 來源：全國農(nóng)技推廣中心 閱讀量：11877 評論

導讀：預(yù)計2025年油菜病蟲害總體中等發(fā)生，發(fā)生面積1.26億畝次，重于上年。

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 熱點關(guān)注】 全國農(nóng)技中心組織植保機構(gòu)和科研教學單位有關(guān)專家，根據(jù)冬前病蟲發(fā)生基數(shù)、油菜種植情況和冬春季氣候條件等因素綜合分析，預(yù)計2025年油菜病蟲害總體中等發(fā)生，發(fā)生面積1.26億畝次，重于上年。其中，菌核病在長江中游和江南中部油菜種植區(qū)偏重發(fā)生；霜霉病、蚜蟲中等發(fā)生。
 
　　趨勢預(yù)報
 
　　油菜菌核病發(fā)生面積5000萬畝，在西南、江南和長江中游油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)偏重發(fā)生，長江下游、豫南、陜南油菜產(chǎn)區(qū)中等發(fā)生。
 
　　油菜霜霉病發(fā)生面積2600萬畝，在西南、江南、長江中下游大部油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)中等發(fā)生。
 
　　油菜蚜蟲發(fā)生面積3400萬畝，在四川偏重發(fā)生，在西南大部、江南、長江中游、豫南油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)中等發(fā)生。
 
　　此外，油菜根腫病在四川、貴州、湖南、湖北、江西、安徽、陜西南部等長江流域油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)發(fā)生范圍擴大、危害程度加重，油菜黃條跳甲在青海中等發(fā)生，潛葉蠅、莖象甲、黑縫葉甲、露尾甲、角野螟在部分油菜產(chǎn)區(qū)會造成一定程度危害。
 
　　預(yù)測依據(jù)
 
　　（一）常發(fā)性病蟲源基數(shù)充足，滿足中等以上發(fā)生條件
 
　　近五年，全國油菜菌核病、霜霉病年均發(fā)生面積分別在4200、2000萬畝左右，田間菌源豐富。其中，西南、長江中下游和江南等主要油菜種植區(qū)菌核病連年大面積發(fā)生，菌源分布廣泛，常年滿足中等以上發(fā)生的菌源基數(shù)。
 
　　長江流域油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)冬前蚜蟲基數(shù)普遍偏低。截至2024年12月10日，平均百株蚜量，西南地區(qū)為30-50頭，較去年偏低4-6成；湖南160頭，較去年低3成；安徽、河南、江西分別為48、71、103頭，與去年持平；江蘇、陜西分別為42、41頭，較去年增加了2-4成。
 
　　（二）油菜品種抗性不高、苗株抗逆性弱，寄主條件有利于病蟲發(fā)生
 
　　2024年全國冬油菜播種面積接近1.1億畝，各地大面積種植油菜品種以雙低高產(chǎn)甘藍型為主，對菌核病、霜霉病、蚜蟲和病毒病等主要病蟲害的抗性較差；加之直播技術(shù)易造成田間植株密度過大，導致抗逆性弱。另外，由于冬春氣溫起伏劇烈、造成凍害，易導致油菜菌核病直接侵莖危害。
 
　　（三）冬春季天氣整體有利于油菜病蟲害的發(fā)生
 
　　根據(jù)國家氣候中心預(yù)測，2024—2025年冬季和春季，全國冬油菜主產(chǎn)區(qū)大部氣溫較常年同期持續(xù)偏高，總體有利于病蟲害越冬和春季早發(fā)。其中，西南、陜南地區(qū)冬春降雨較常年同期持續(xù)偏多，可能導致菌核病子囊盤萌發(fā)提前、侵染期延長，加重病害發(fā)生程度；江南東部、長江中下游春季降水偏少，有利于蚜蟲和病毒病的發(fā)生危害，需引起警惕。

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