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地點: 巴彥淖爾市
開展時間: 2025-02-22
舉辦單位: 內(nèi)蒙古春季農(nóng)機展組委會
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地點: 廣州市
開展時間: 2025-02-25
舉辦單位: 廣州光亞法蘭克福展覽有限公司
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地點: 廣州市
開展時間: 2025-02-25
舉辦單位: 廣州光亞法蘭克福展覽有限公司
11月份農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)為39.9%,6個一級指數(shù)全部陷入不景氣區(qū)間
2024-12-06
13:46:14
來源:中國農(nóng)機流通協(xié)會 閱讀量:12042
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導讀: 中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2024年11月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為39.9%,環(huán)比下降3.5個百分點,同比提升0.1個百分點。
【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】 中國農(nóng)業(yè)機械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2024年11月份中國農(nóng)機市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為39.9%,環(huán)比下降3.5個百分點,同比提升0.1個百分點。6個一級指數(shù)全部陷入不景氣區(qū)間。從環(huán)比看,6個一級指數(shù)中,除經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)微增外,其它全部下降,其中,效益、人氣指數(shù)降幅較大,均超過7%;從同比看,6個一級指數(shù)中,包括銷售能力、補貼指數(shù)等在內(nèi)的4個指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長,庫存指數(shù)雖增幅趨緩,但2.6個百分點的增幅依然創(chuàng)本月一級指數(shù)的最大增幅,包括效益、經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)在內(nèi)的兩個指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的小幅下滑。

特約分析師張華光認為:11月,AMI跌入谷底并不奇怪,傳統(tǒng)淡季疊加供需偏弱的市場,讓景氣度更是雪上加霜。從走勢看,AMI在8月份沖上高點后進入下行通道,11月份只是這種走勢的延續(xù)而已。11月份作為下半年淡季的開端將一直延續(xù)至明年2月份。在未來4個月漫長的淡季中,景氣度或有波動,但淡季特點不會改變。在各種利空因素的綜合作用下,11月份的農(nóng)機市場表現(xiàn)的更為孱弱,其中環(huán)比降幅有點大,而同比波瀾不驚。不但人氣、經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)差強人意,而且作為上月一級指數(shù)中唯一停留于景氣區(qū)間的庫存指數(shù),在經(jīng)歷環(huán)比下降5.5%沖擊后,跌入不景氣區(qū)間。效益也持續(xù)下降,經(jīng)營愈發(fā)艱難。
AMI所監(jiān)測的5個二級指數(shù)環(huán)比“2上3下”。田間管理機械、
種植機械指數(shù)環(huán)比出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長,
拖拉機、耕整地、
收獲機指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降;同比“3上2下”,拖拉機、種植機械、田間管理機械同比出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長,其中,值得注意的種植機械指數(shù)出現(xiàn)較大變化,不僅環(huán)比、同比雙雙增長,而且還挺進景氣區(qū)間,成為所監(jiān)測的5個二級指數(shù)中唯一停留在景氣區(qū)間的指數(shù)。所監(jiān)測的10個三級指數(shù)多降少增。環(huán)比:“3上7下”。包括插秧機、遙控飛行噴霧機、自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機三大指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長,其余均出現(xiàn)下降。最令人意外的是插秧機指數(shù)挺進景氣區(qū)間,成為唯一停留在景氣區(qū)間的指數(shù)。同比:“4升6降”。其中,大型拖拉機、旋耕機、插秧機、自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機4個指數(shù)增長,其它指數(shù)均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降。

12月份,市場正值淡季,但一些利好因素的支撐力依然較大,雖不足以將景氣度推入擴張區(qū)間,但出現(xiàn)年終翹尾的可能性還是有的。因此,AMI景氣度環(huán)比出現(xiàn)增長,同比小幅下降的概率較大,會繼續(xù)滯留于不景氣區(qū)間。一、二、三級指數(shù)的景氣度變化依然會呈現(xiàn)出較大差異。
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