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2021～2022年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)回顧與展望

2022-08-23 09:50:55 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：19856 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：2021年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)的特點(diǎn)，繼2020年大幅增長(zhǎng)25.65%，繼續(xù)保持增長(zhǎng)。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】2021年是玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)很不平凡的一年，眾多偶發(fā)性事件構(gòu)成了玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的環(huán)境，也催生出現(xiàn)玉米收獲機(jī)新變化和新特點(diǎn)。猶如2020年的一段續(xù)集——受新冠疫情影響，玉米收獲機(jī)變數(shù)陡增；突發(fā)的水災(zāi)導(dǎo)致部分區(qū)域玉米受災(zāi)，以占比95%的輪式玉米收獲機(jī)眼睜睜的失去機(jī)會(huì)；部分地方限電對(duì)玉米收獲機(jī)的生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生較大影響，直接沖擊整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈；原材料漲價(jià)，帶給玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)最大的改變就是打破了多年不變的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局，催生出新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)特點(diǎn)。
 
　　往者不諫，來(lái)者可追。面對(duì)未知的2022年，如何把握玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，解碼市場(chǎng)發(fā)展周期奧秘，踏準(zhǔn)變局中的需求節(jié)奏，成為擺在我們面前的共同思考。
 
　　2021，穩(wěn)健攀升，月度走勢(shì)前揚(yáng)后抑
 
　　2021年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)的特點(diǎn)，繼2020年大幅增長(zhǎng)25.65%，繼續(xù)保持增長(zhǎng)，實(shí)現(xiàn)“兩連增”，市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)顯示，去年累計(jì)銷售各種玉米收獲機(jī)5.65萬(wàn)余臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)16.49%。
 
　　中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的農(nóng)機(jī)市場(chǎng)景氣指數(shù)(AMI)，其中對(duì)玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)月度走勢(shì)的監(jiān)控也反映了這一特點(diǎn)。1～8月的景氣度指數(shù)除2月偏離景氣區(qū)間外，均在景氣區(qū)間起伏。相反，9～10月的旺季，反而跌出景氣區(qū)間。12月雖出現(xiàn)翹尾現(xiàn)象，但并不能改變?nèi)暝露茸邉?shì)特征。
 
　　銷售旺季前移的特點(diǎn)表現(xiàn)的較為突出，其主要原因是上年市場(chǎng)“斷貨”，對(duì)不少經(jīng)銷商的效益造成較大影響，進(jìn)而形成多年少見(jiàn)的市場(chǎng)“饑餓”效應(yīng)，許多經(jīng)銷商提前備貨，大量產(chǎn)品滯壓于渠道；下半年市場(chǎng)釋放庫(kù)存，從而導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)前增后降的奇怪現(xiàn)象。月度市場(chǎng)占比也反映了這個(gè)特點(diǎn)，上半年，月度占比除1月外，其它月份的同比均高于去年同期；下半年正好相反，除8月份外，其它月份均低于去年同期；出貨高峰期集中度有所提升，玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)出貨高峰期集中在6-9月4個(gè)月，今年這個(gè)4個(gè)月的銷量占全年銷量的77.79%，比去年同期上揚(yáng)了3.06%。
 
　　大型化趨勢(shì)強(qiáng)烈，4行機(jī)型市場(chǎng)占比六成
 
　　2021年的玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)需求結(jié)構(gòu)受各種因素的影響，出現(xiàn)較大變化，凸顯三個(gè)新特點(diǎn)。
 
　　1.大型化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)。市場(chǎng)監(jiān)測(cè)顯示，去年累計(jì)銷售5行及以上機(jī)型1.02萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比大幅增長(zhǎng)67.21%；占比18.05%，較之2020年上揚(yáng)5.48個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
 
　　2.從玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)需求的各個(gè)機(jī)型看，今年聚焦4行機(jī)。市場(chǎng)調(diào)查顯示，2021年4行機(jī)型累計(jì)銷售3.39萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比增長(zhǎng)33.99%；占比高達(dá)60.00%，較之去年同期上揚(yáng)了7.84個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
 
　　3.莖穗兼收玉米收獲機(jī)依然保持強(qiáng)勁的增勢(shì)，以專門(mén)生產(chǎn)莖穗兼收玉米收獲機(jī)的九方泰禾為例，截至2021年10月份，銷售3800多臺(tái)，同比大幅度增長(zhǎng)113.09%。2019-2020年，莖穗兼收玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)連續(xù)三年高歌猛進(jìn)，同比增幅分別達(dá)到了333.73%、140.93%和128.94%。正是其市場(chǎng)爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)，吸引了包括濰柴雷沃、山東巨明、河北英虎、山東金大豐在內(nèi)的眾多企業(yè)進(jìn)入，市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也愈發(fā)激烈。
 
　　主流區(qū)域市場(chǎng)冷熱不均，黃淮海區(qū)域大幅度增長(zhǎng)
 
　　2021年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)新特點(diǎn)，主要表現(xiàn)為：第一，區(qū)域集中度小幅下降；第二，黃淮海區(qū)域市場(chǎng)增勢(shì)強(qiáng)勁。反觀“東北三省一區(qū)”主流市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)，差強(qiáng)人意。

　　集中度提高，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)進(jìn)入淘汰賽
 
　　去年原材料價(jià)格的大幅度漲價(jià)對(duì)玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)態(tài)勢(shì)產(chǎn)生了較為深刻的影響，不同品牌因自身實(shí)力、市場(chǎng)布局的提前量、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)策略的不同，呈現(xiàn)出截然不同的結(jié)果，也催生出競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的新特點(diǎn)。
 
　　特點(diǎn)一，洗牌加速。品牌數(shù)量持續(xù)減少，由高峰期的數(shù)百家減少到去年不足百家。
 
　　特點(diǎn)二，集中度提高，銷量前7大品牌累計(jì)銷售各種型號(hào)玉米收獲機(jī)4.18萬(wàn)臺(tái)，同比大幅度增長(zhǎng)56.44%，高于平均增幅39.95個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；占比73.98%，比2020年同期提升18.89%。
 
　　特點(diǎn)三，主流品牌全線飄紅。
 
　　特點(diǎn)四，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)水平提升。去年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)繼續(xù)圍繞產(chǎn)品品質(zhì)與品牌兩大因素展開(kāi)，大品牌依靠?jī)?yōu)良品質(zhì)，攻城略地，擴(kuò)大市場(chǎng)地盤(pán)，進(jìn)一步擠壓小品牌的生存空間，走出低價(jià)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的泥潭。
 
　　2022，利好利空疊加，市場(chǎng)變數(shù)陡增
 
　　今年的玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)面臨著錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的環(huán)境，利好、利空因素交織，機(jī)遇、挑戰(zhàn)并存，市場(chǎng)變數(shù)明顯增多。
 
　　從影響玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)宏觀因素分析，玉米播種面積增加或減少、玉米價(jià)格的升降對(duì)玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)都會(huì)產(chǎn)生較大影響，并且二者又聯(lián)系密切。
 
　　首先，玉米價(jià)格對(duì)玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)影響較大。一是影響玉米的種植面積；二是影響種植戶的收入，直接影響用戶的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力和購(gòu)買(mǎi)信心；第二，稻谷以及進(jìn)口玉米和其他谷物的替代，尤其是稻谷庫(kù)存高企。第三，心態(tài)變化。去年賣(mài)方的心態(tài)普遍是惜售，而買(mǎi)方的心態(tài)是一致的積極，這也是去年玉米行情大漲的一個(gè)重要原因。
 
　　其次，今年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)內(nèi)生動(dòng)力偏弱，面臨需求、供應(yīng)、渠道三重下行壓力。
 
　　市場(chǎng)或下滑
 
　　基于以上分析，我們預(yù)判，2022年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)下滑的概率較大，但降幅不會(huì)太夸張。預(yù)計(jì)全年銷量會(huì)守住5萬(wàn)臺(tái)底線，同比降幅徘徊在10%上下。

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