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一季度拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)的分析:大拖銷售全面增長(zhǎng),中拖多品種銷量下滑

2022-05-25 08:43:32 來(lái)源:中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量:15793 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀:3月份以來(lái),受多省多點(diǎn)新冠疫情頻發(fā)的影響,今年一季度拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了較大的波動(dòng)。

  【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】3月份以來(lái),受多省多點(diǎn)新冠疫情頻發(fā)的影響,今年一季度拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了較大的波動(dòng)。根據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局和中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)企業(yè)管理委員會(huì)提供的一季度拖拉機(jī)行業(yè)報(bào)表的數(shù)據(jù)分析,今年一季度拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量下降,銷售略有增長(zhǎng),產(chǎn)品馬力段出現(xiàn)變化,企業(yè)消化庫(kù)存、經(jīng)營(yíng)情況兩極分化。下面試從報(bào)表數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)分析拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)的變化。
 
  一、產(chǎn)量下降,產(chǎn)銷率提高,市場(chǎng)以消化庫(kù)存為主
 
  拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量下降。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局4月20日公布了一季度的拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù),3月份當(dāng)月生產(chǎn)大型拖拉機(jī)10128臺(tái),同比下降23.5%,一季度累計(jì)生產(chǎn)大拖26793臺(tái),同比下降4.2%;3月份當(dāng)月生產(chǎn)中型拖拉機(jī)33070臺(tái),同比下降23%,累計(jì)生產(chǎn)中拖99093臺(tái)同比下降6.5%;3月份當(dāng)月生產(chǎn)小型拖拉機(jī)1.9萬(wàn)臺(tái),同比下降9.5%,累計(jì)生產(chǎn)4.4萬(wàn)臺(tái)同比下降12.0%。從上述數(shù)據(jù)可以看出,3月份大拖、中拖、小拖的產(chǎn)量都出現(xiàn)了下降,3月份大中拖的降幅均在兩成以上。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局的資料顯示,1-2月份大拖產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)19%、中拖產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)3.5%,因此一季度拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量下降主要原因是3月當(dāng)月出現(xiàn)了較大的下降,3月份山東、江蘇、河南等拖拉機(jī)主產(chǎn)省的企業(yè)都受到新冠疫情的影響,拖拉機(jī)的產(chǎn)量減少。受3月份產(chǎn)量下降的影響,今年一季度拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)量也呈現(xiàn)下降的局面。
 
  大中拖產(chǎn)銷率高企。根據(jù)中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)企業(yè)管理委員會(huì)提供的拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)銷數(shù)據(jù),今年一季度生產(chǎn)大中拖94015臺(tái),同比下降幅度為9.3%;其中大拖生產(chǎn)28428臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)16.6%,生產(chǎn)中拖65586臺(tái),同比下降17.3%。雖然產(chǎn)量下降,但銷售開票增長(zhǎng),一季度大中拖銷量118663臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)9.3%,其中大拖銷售33496臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)45.5%,中拖銷售85150臺(tái),同比下降0.4%,由此可見(jiàn)今年一季度拖拉機(jī)銷售的增長(zhǎng)主要依賴于大拖銷售的大幅增長(zhǎng)。一季度拖拉機(jī)行業(yè)的產(chǎn)銷率高達(dá)126.2%,高出去年同季22個(gè)百分點(diǎn),說(shuō)明今年一季度拖拉機(jī)企業(yè)都在消化庫(kù)存。一是受多地疫情的影響,部分區(qū)域的供應(yīng)鏈?zhǔn)艿搅擞绊?,?dǎo)致拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)出減少;二是由于2022年12月1日起實(shí)施國(guó)四排放,當(dāng)前企業(yè)拖拉機(jī)社會(huì)庫(kù)存較多,因此部分企業(yè)以消化社會(huì)庫(kù)存為主;三是2021年四季度部分企業(yè)為2022年旺季備貨較多,在今年一季度銷售,企業(yè)內(nèi)部的庫(kù)存也有下降。
 
  二、拖拉機(jī)品種出現(xiàn)變化:大拖銷售全面增長(zhǎng),中拖多品種銷量下滑。
 
  從今年一季度大中拖的銷售情況來(lái)看,出現(xiàn)了大拖增長(zhǎng)、中拖平穩(wěn)的情況。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),一季度大拖銷售33496臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)45.5%,中拖銷售85150臺(tái),同比下降0.4%,今年一季度大中拖銷量118663臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)9.3%,因此今年一季度拖拉機(jī)銷售的增長(zhǎng)主要依賴于大拖銷售的大幅增長(zhǎng)。一季度拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)有以下幾個(gè)特點(diǎn):
 
  1、中拖70系列一技獨(dú)秀,90系列略有增長(zhǎng)。從中拖銷量來(lái)看,今年一季度銷售85150臺(tái),同比下降0.4%,三年來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)了總量下降。從中拖品種來(lái)看,今年70-80(含70馬力及以上,不含80馬力,下同)系列仍然高速增長(zhǎng),一季度銷量28357臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)38.8%;由去年的銷量第二提升到今年的銷量第一;50-60系列銷量22492臺(tái),今年銷量排第二去年第一,同比下降9.6%;90-100系列銷量12252臺(tái),排第三,同比增長(zhǎng)7.3%,由去年的第四排今年的第三;60-70系列銷量8677臺(tái)同比下降25.6%,銷售由去年的第三今年排第四;40-50系列銷量5503臺(tái),同比下降11%;80-90系列銷是5387臺(tái),同比下降25.3%。從今年的中拖市場(chǎng)來(lái)看,以70系列和50系列為主,90系列為輔,其他一些品種都出現(xiàn)了較大幅度的下降,說(shuō)明市場(chǎng)需求的馬力段出現(xiàn)了較大的變化,還在往上延伸。
 
  2、大拖主銷品種全面增長(zhǎng)。從大拖來(lái)看,銷售總量保持了高速增長(zhǎng),主銷品種的增幅均較大。200-220系列今年銷量7820臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)103.1%,今年銷量第一,去年銷量第二;140-150系列銷量5214臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)9.9%,銷量去年的第一今年第二;120-130系列銷量4562臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)20.7%,銷量排第三,100-110系列銷量4373臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)115.3%,銷量排第四,160-180系列銷量3451臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)134.8%,銷量排第五;150-160系列銷量2334臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)34.9%,220-240系列銷量2059臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)48.3%。當(dāng)然去年一季度拖拉機(jī)行業(yè)部分企業(yè)受實(shí)施K值的影響,K值不達(dá)標(biāo)的不享受農(nóng)機(jī)購(gòu)置補(bǔ)貼,大馬力受影響更大,這也是今年一季度市場(chǎng)變化的一個(gè)重要原因。
 
  3、2022年一季度拖拉機(jī)市場(chǎng)還有一個(gè)特點(diǎn)就是大馬力兩驅(qū)產(chǎn)品的增幅較大。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),一季度共銷售兩輪驅(qū)動(dòng)拖拉機(jī)5738臺(tái),同比下降5.1%;其中中拖兩驅(qū)拖拉機(jī)銷售3301臺(tái),同比下降29.5%;大拖兩驅(qū)銷售2437臺(tái),同比增長(zhǎng)78.8%。兩驅(qū)拖拉機(jī)的主銷區(qū)域中原區(qū)域去年受水災(zāi)影響,今年春耕作業(yè)時(shí)用戶大都選擇大拖兩驅(qū)旋耕及秸稈還田作業(yè)。據(jù)用戶反映,大拖四驅(qū)拖拉機(jī)由于自身重、有的地方還會(huì)陷車,轉(zhuǎn)彎不靈活,油耗比兩驅(qū)機(jī)型大。
 
  4、從主銷企業(yè)的銷售情況來(lái)看,一是行業(yè)的集中度進(jìn)一步提高;二是60%的生產(chǎn)企業(yè)產(chǎn)量出現(xiàn)下降。從頭部企業(yè)銷售量占行業(yè)的比重情況來(lái)看,集中度仍在提高,今年一季度中國(guó)一拖、濰柴雷沃、東風(fēng)農(nóng)機(jī)等前5名的頭部企業(yè)銷量達(dá)86626臺(tái),集中度高達(dá)73%,同比提高3個(gè)多百分點(diǎn);其中中拖集中度為71%,大拖集中度達(dá)到了78%,大拖的集中度更高。
 
  今年一季度拖拉機(jī)行業(yè)企業(yè)產(chǎn)銷量?jī)蓸O分化。根據(jù)中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)提供的統(tǒng)計(jì)資料,從一季度生產(chǎn)量來(lái)看,27個(gè)企業(yè)中18個(gè)企業(yè)的產(chǎn)量下降,僅7個(gè)增長(zhǎng);從一季度銷量來(lái)看,27個(gè)企業(yè)中13個(gè)企業(yè)增長(zhǎng),13個(gè)企業(yè)下降。
 
  三、產(chǎn)量下降原因分析:
 
  今年一季度產(chǎn)量下降,主要是受新冠肺炎疫情多點(diǎn)反復(fù)散發(fā)和局部地區(qū)聚集性疫情的影響,農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)的生產(chǎn)、發(fā)貨、銷售和服務(wù)都受影響,企業(yè)以消化庫(kù)存為主。今年先是東北、西北等地市場(chǎng)銷售受疫情影響,接著是山東、江蘇等地生產(chǎn)受疫情影響、之后發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)、輪胎等供應(yīng)受疫情影響,尤其是3月份的旺季受疫情影響最大;根據(jù)4月13日江蘇省農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)召開的一季度農(nóng)機(jī)行業(yè)運(yùn)行座談會(huì)交流的情況來(lái)看,所有的與會(huì)企業(yè)都談到了農(nóng)機(jī)經(jīng)營(yíng)受疫情影響很大:一是從生產(chǎn)的角度來(lái)看,物料運(yùn)輸和停供,影響正常生產(chǎn);二是農(nóng)機(jī)物流目的地絕大部分在主銷的縣級(jí)和鄉(xiāng)村區(qū)域,其防控措施更加嚴(yán)格:勸返、入境賦黃碼、隔離,導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)品發(fā)運(yùn)困難;三是各地管控標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不一,導(dǎo)致目前社會(huì)可用車源減少、貨車返程空載、在途時(shí)間大幅增加等不利因素,導(dǎo)致物流成本大幅增加。四是4月中下旬進(jìn)入農(nóng)忙旺季,企業(yè)擔(dān)心會(huì)出現(xiàn)配件發(fā)不出、服務(wù)人員出不去,服務(wù)工作無(wú)法正常開展。
 
  二受俄烏戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的影響,拖拉機(jī)出口受影響較大。從2021年我國(guó)拖拉機(jī)出口的數(shù)量統(tǒng)計(jì)來(lái)看,烏克蘭是我國(guó)拖拉機(jī)出口最大的市場(chǎng),俄羅斯是排在第三的市場(chǎng)。目前針對(duì)烏克蘭的拖拉機(jī)出口基本停滯。
 
  三是受化肥、農(nóng)藥、柴油等農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)資料價(jià)格上升的影響,農(nóng)民要優(yōu)先購(gòu)買化肥、種子等生產(chǎn)資料,加上水稻等收購(gòu)價(jià)格不高,農(nóng)民購(gòu)買力不足,今年水田區(qū)域的拖拉機(jī)銷售受影響較大。
 
  四是今年部分省份陸續(xù)公布2022年的拖拉機(jī)補(bǔ)貼額度,部分省份下降20-30%,補(bǔ)貼額度的下降,導(dǎo)致用戶購(gòu)買拖拉機(jī)產(chǎn)品的實(shí)際支出上升。
 
  進(jìn)入4月份,從部分柴油機(jī)、拖拉機(jī)生產(chǎn)企業(yè)反饋的信息來(lái)看,4月份的拖拉機(jī)銷售要好于去年同月,說(shuō)明由于受疫情的影響,農(nóng)機(jī)的銷售季節(jié)在往后延伸;4月19日,國(guó)務(wù)院聯(lián)防聯(lián)控機(jī)制就從嚴(yán)從實(shí)抓好疫情防控工作有關(guān)情況召開新聞發(fā)布會(huì)。會(huì)上農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部明確全力暢通春耕農(nóng)資交通運(yùn)輸通道,把化肥、農(nóng)藥、種子等農(nóng)資及其生產(chǎn)原料、農(nóng)機(jī)及零配件納入重點(diǎn)物資運(yùn)輸保障范圍,落實(shí)保供綠色通道政策,優(yōu)先發(fā)放通行證、優(yōu)先承運(yùn)、優(yōu)先裝卸、優(yōu)先查驗(yàn)、優(yōu)先放行。4月29日召開的中共中央政治局會(huì)議,再次強(qiáng)調(diào)要抓好春耕備耕工作。要堅(jiān)持全國(guó)一盤棋,確保交通物流暢通,確保重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈供應(yīng)鏈、抗疫保供企業(yè)、關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。疫情要防住、經(jīng)濟(jì)要穩(wěn)?。患由?2月份實(shí)施國(guó)四排放,后期的拖拉機(jī)更新市場(chǎng)會(huì)持續(xù),因此上半年的拖拉機(jī)銷售不會(huì)太差。(許國(guó)明)
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