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河南省洪澇災(zāi)情對小麥和玉米價格有什么影響？

2021-08-02 10:24:51 來源：農(nóng)機網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量：32708 評論

導(dǎo)讀：從今年6月份開始，隨著供給偏緊的局面緩和，玉米價格高位回落。河南等地暴雨災(zāi)害發(fā)生后，市場擔(dān)心玉米生產(chǎn)供給受影響，華北部分地區(qū)價格短期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了小幅反彈，收購價每斤上漲2-3分錢，但并沒有帶動全國玉米價格上漲。

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】 7月30日，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部舉行新聞發(fā)布會，介紹當(dāng)前農(nóng)業(yè)抗災(zāi)救災(zāi)情況，并答記者問。
 
　　由于河南省是糧食小麥、玉米主產(chǎn)區(qū)，對于此次災(zāi)害對糧食價格的影響，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部市場與信息化司司長唐珂表示，災(zāi)情發(fā)生后，從監(jiān)測情況看，我國糧食價格沒有出現(xiàn)明顯波動，市場運行仍保持基本穩(wěn)定。其中，小麥?zhǔn)袌鲑忎N總體正常，價格繼續(xù)呈穩(wěn)中偏弱趨勢。和往年一樣，6月底前后河南的小麥已經(jīng)基本收獲完畢。由于今年小麥單產(chǎn)高、品質(zhì)好，市場購銷活躍，開秤初期收購價每斤普遍比去年高1毛錢左右，之后隨著上市量的增加，農(nóng)戶售糧進度加快，市場收購價穩(wěn)中略跌。這次鄭州、新鄉(xiāng)等地發(fā)生強降雨災(zāi)害之后，部分農(nóng)戶和貿(mào)易商手中的糧食保管難度加大，售糧意愿加強，導(dǎo)致小麥價格繼續(xù)走弱，但跌幅不明顯。據(jù)調(diào)度，7月26日主產(chǎn)區(qū)普通小麥?zhǔn)召従鶅r約每斤1.25元，較受災(zāi)前跌1分錢左右。玉米價格局部地區(qū)小幅上漲，全國市場變化不大。由于去年以來，玉米價格漲幅較大，受到市場各方高度關(guān)注，從今年6月份開始，隨著供給偏緊的局面緩和，玉米價格高位回落。河南等地暴雨災(zāi)害發(fā)生后，市場擔(dān)心玉米生產(chǎn)供給受影響，華北部分地區(qū)價格短期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)了小幅反彈，收購價每斤上漲2-3分錢，但并沒有帶動全國玉米價格上漲。7月26日全國玉米收購均價約每斤1.3元，仍然保持基本穩(wěn)定。
 
　　從國際市場看，近期也沒有出現(xiàn)大幅波動，總體仍然是高位震蕩回落的走勢。7月26日，芝加哥期貨交易所的小麥和玉米的主力合約收盤價都比一周前有所下跌。
 
　　總體來說，糧食市場運行雖然受市場預(yù)期、資本炒作等多種因素的影響，但主要還是看供需基本面。這次河南暴雨洪澇災(zāi)害對糧食市場的影響是局部的、短期的，對我國糧食生產(chǎn)供給全局影響較為有限，在這一點上，市場各方的判斷和預(yù)期也是基本一致的。今年我國夏糧已經(jīng)豐收到手，秋糧長勢總體較好，再加上糧食庫存總量充足，糧食保供穩(wěn)價基礎(chǔ)牢固，后期糧價有望繼續(xù)以穩(wěn)為主。值得注意的是，夏季高溫多雨，糧食不好保管，當(dāng)前又處于面粉需求淡季，低品質(zhì)小麥價格可能會持續(xù)走弱，所以我們提醒受災(zāi)地區(qū)的部分手中仍然有余糧的農(nóng)戶和貿(mào)易商要做好科學(xué)儲糧，及時有序售糧，防止糧食受潮霉變和價格下跌帶來損失。
 
　　本文由農(nóng)機網(wǎng)(dwjfsy.com)整理發(fā)布，資料來源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部。

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