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玉米市場(chǎng)持續(xù)“陣痛” 玉米收獲機(jī)會(huì)“受傷”嗎？

2017-01-13 13:46:54 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 閱讀量：22290 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：眼看還不到一個(gè)月就要過(guò)年了，這本應(yīng)是件令全國(guó)人民都高興的事兒，可此時(shí)的糧農(nóng)卻“望糧興嘆”，苦悶不已。因受2016年玉米臨儲(chǔ)制度改革的影響，原有糧食市場(chǎng)的平衡被打破，部分農(nóng)戶的玉米賣(mài)不出去，從而導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存加大，價(jià)格下跌。

　　【中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】眼看還不到一個(gè)月就要過(guò)年了，這本應(yīng)是件令全國(guó)人民都高興的事兒，可此時(shí)的糧農(nóng)卻“望糧興嘆”，苦悶不已。因受2016年玉米臨儲(chǔ)制度改革的影響，原有糧食市場(chǎng)的平衡被打破，部分農(nóng)戶的玉米賣(mài)不出去，從而導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存加大，價(jià)格下跌。
 
　　臨近年關(guān)，經(jīng)過(guò)前段時(shí)間集中大幅降價(jià)，東北產(chǎn)區(qū)近日降價(jià)腳步放緩，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格穩(wěn)中偏弱運(yùn)行。農(nóng)戶在變現(xiàn)需求與低價(jià)難售中等待市場(chǎng)回暖，但短期看，價(jià)格下行，壓力仍是主導(dǎo)；　　　華北產(chǎn)區(qū)糧價(jià)跌幅明顯小于東北，但用糧企業(yè)年前備貨需求清淡，預(yù)計(jì)后期在東北糧價(jià)反彈行情出現(xiàn)前，將是華北糧價(jià)向東北下跌靠攏過(guò)程；南方銷(xiāo)區(qū)，飼料企業(yè)備貨持續(xù)，但持續(xù)的降價(jià)及供應(yīng)充足使企業(yè)備貨規(guī)?？s窄，加之年底集中出欄，能量原料需求下降，節(jié)前飼企備貨難以提振銷(xiāo)區(qū)市場(chǎng)。
 
　　可見(jiàn)，年底玉米市場(chǎng)仍在持續(xù)“陣痛”中，農(nóng)民陷入“手有余糧而力不足”的困境，這種情況若不加以改善，必將對(duì)2017年的玉米種植、銷(xiāo)售及玉米機(jī)械市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響。
 
　　玉米價(jià)格下降加快種植結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變
 
　　“米改豆”、“糧改飼”是我國(guó)種植業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的目標(biāo)。2016年中國(guó)玉米產(chǎn)量為21955.4萬(wàn)噸，同比2015年總產(chǎn)量下降2.3%，糧食總產(chǎn)量“十二年連增”就此止步。除其他自然條件因素的影響之外，種植結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變無(wú)疑是影響糧食產(chǎn)量的重大原因之一。
 
　　據(jù)資料顯示，2016年1月1日國(guó)內(nèi)玉米市場(chǎng)均價(jià)為1958.00元/噸，預(yù)計(jì)2016年12月31日國(guó)內(nèi)玉米均價(jià)為1580元/噸，2016年全年玉米價(jià)格下跌378元/噸，降幅將接近20%。這翻降價(jià)無(wú)疑打擊了玉米種植者的信心，對(duì)種植玉米呈現(xiàn)出觀望或退縮的態(tài)度，因此，玉米種植面積減少或成未來(lái)自然趨勢(shì)之一。
 
　　那么，隨著玉米種植面積的減少，農(nóng)機(jī)界較關(guān)注的玉米收獲機(jī)的需求量是否也會(huì)隨之減少呢？
 
　　2016年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)遇冷
 
　　2016年受市場(chǎng)玉米購(gòu)銷(xiāo)價(jià)格大跌，國(guó)內(nèi)玉米價(jià)格下降，國(guó)家對(duì)玉米種植結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行調(diào)整和補(bǔ)貼資金嚴(yán)重短缺等因素影響，我國(guó)玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)大幅下跌局面，雖然在第三季度的銷(xiāo)售旺季中，部分玉米收獲機(jī)企業(yè)搶抓機(jī)遇，開(kāi)展多種形式演示活動(dòng)，提升用戶體驗(yàn)，使玉米收獲機(jī)產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)大幅下滑的局面略有好轉(zhuǎn)，但2016年玉米收獲機(jī)市場(chǎng)疲軟下滑的態(tài)勢(shì)已是必然。
 
　　勇猛機(jī)械股份有限公司總經(jīng)理表示，今年玉米機(jī)市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)出乎大多數(shù)業(yè)內(nèi)人士的預(yù)料，糧食價(jià)格的不穩(wěn)定，讓包地的農(nóng)民不敢包、不敢種，購(gòu)機(jī)的農(nóng)民也不敢輕易買(mǎi)了。此外，國(guó)家削減鐮刀灣地區(qū)玉米種植面積、國(guó)2升國(guó)3、南方的水災(zāi)、北方的旱災(zāi)等因素疊加也對(duì)玉米機(jī)市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響。
 
　　盡管2016年玉米臨儲(chǔ)改革剛剛實(shí)施，但其對(duì)玉米機(jī)械的影響已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生效果了，經(jīng)過(guò)年底玉米價(jià)格帶來(lái)的沖擊，2017年，玉米收獲機(jī)該如何前行？
 
　　需求還在 未來(lái)籽粒機(jī)收是方向
 
　　業(yè)界認(rèn)為，玉米價(jià)格的下跌，種植面積的減少，對(duì)于玉米收獲機(jī)的需求卻并不會(huì)減弱，只是要求更高了。隨著農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化的不斷成熟，對(duì)農(nóng)機(jī)的要求也在逐漸提高，自動(dòng)化、化的農(nóng)機(jī)一直都是市場(chǎng)稀缺。另外從玉米收獲機(jī)行業(yè)細(xì)分來(lái)看，供求總量失衡的格局之下仍難以掩蓋供求結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾，隨著玉米作物生產(chǎn)全程機(jī)械化進(jìn)程的不斷加深，玉米籽粒收獲機(jī)械或?qū)⒃谖磥?lái)玉米收獲機(jī)械行業(yè)乃至整個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)裝備行業(yè)中脫穎而出。
 
　　與此同時(shí)，由于我國(guó)玉米機(jī)收總體水平還比較低，市場(chǎng)需求依然存在，特別是針對(duì)山區(qū)丘陵地帶質(zhì)量可靠的玉米收獲機(jī)產(chǎn)品依然不多，市場(chǎng)前景仍值得期待。
 
　　眼下，玉米市場(chǎng)的“戰(zhàn)斗”仍在繼續(xù)，無(wú)論年底糧食好不好賣(mài)，對(duì)于玉米收獲機(jī)企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，只要堅(jiān)持進(jìn)行產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)品制造、銷(xiāo)售領(lǐng)域及流通領(lǐng)域的調(diào)整，充分適應(yīng)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和用戶對(duì)農(nóng)機(jī)需求的變化，那么即使遇到“陣痛期”，也會(huì)屹立不倒，繼續(xù)前行。
 

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